Trade, tariff and Trump: How India can beat the big likely disruption in making

India should seek comprehensive engagement with the incoming Trump administration to address issues in trade, investment, technology, and finance. A focus on maintaining supply lines and diversifying markets is vital, particularly for sectors like pharmaceuticals, jewellery, and services. Leveraging opportunities from US tariff actions is crucial.

Initiating a trade war with India is not beneficial for the US as previous policy shifts under the Trump administration showed temporary setbacks followed by recovery. India’s trade surplus with the US declined initially but later resumed growth due to resilient and strategic responses from India.

India’s exports of goods and services are expected to surpass USD 814 billion in 2024, a 5.58 per cent increase from 2023. While machinery and electronics exports are growing, traditional sectors such as textiles and garments are declining, highlighting both opportunities and challenges amid sluggish global trade and geopolitical tensions.

APEDA has updated the National Programme for Organic Production regulations. The changes aim to make it easier for farmers and boost India’s organic food exports to USD 2 billion by 2030. New features include clearer certification processes and better transparency. India’s organic exports have been growing, with main markets in the USA, Europe, and Asia.

Donald Trump’s presidency could influence India’s economic and trade policies through reciprocal taxation measures. India’s potential advantage due to Trump’s focus on China, options on tariff reduction on US goods, and reviving the proposed FTA were highlighted. Strengthening bilateral ties and resolving political challenges are also emphasized.